Will the American People quit Hillary Clinton?
                      The serious question now is .....
            are the American people with her, or are they about to quit?

                                                                                                
            Donald Trump says to Hillary Clinton ... Your Fired ... 

                             "Hillary, you're Fired!" - Crispy 9/11 clip (funny)

                                       

The Takedown of America Underway – Corruption Top to Bottom in the USA, FBI Insider Spills the Beans

Sunday, September 4, 2016

http://beforeitsnews.com/opinion-conservative/2016/09/the-take-down-of-america-underway-corruption-top-to-bottom-in-the-usa-fbi-insider-spills-the-beans-3182289.html?currentSplittedPage=2

 Sent by SR

From an FBI insider   

A sad state of Affairs.. 

FBI insider confirms everyones worst suspicions.  The Hillary Clinton e-mail server was merely a distraction from the Clinton Foundation and most of Washington, D.C. is in up to their necks in what could be the biggest scandal of all times.  This inside info comes from someone claiming to be a high level FBI analyst whose job was to look at the records, with his notes added. The smoking gun is about to arrive and there are a lot of people involved.  To save everyone time, what follows here are the choice bits.  Looks like Trump and Putin hold some of the cards.  This could be the most interesting election ever.          

There is intense pressure within the FBI for us not to indict Hillary. I am posting from a position of near anonymity and enough plausible deniability to evade prosecution, as we have all been given gag orders. There is enough for Hillary and the entire government to be brought down. People do not realize how enormous this whole situation actually is. Whether she will be indicted or not depends on how much info about others involved gets out, and there are a lot of people involved. The real point of interest is the Clinton Foundation, not the e-mail server. We received the server from Benghazi, then from the server we found data on the Clinton Foundation. Then we realized the situation is much worse than previously thought.       

Super Classified Materials on the Clinton Email Server: Hillary had Special Access Programs on her server, which if made public, would literally cause an uprising and possibly foreign declarations of war. A Special Access Program is an intelligence program classified above top-secret. These programs are supposed to be held on closed servers at secret locations. The only way to get one is if you are specifically read on to a program, have a need to know, then you must physically go to a location and pass through several layers of security to even look at the program. A good example in non-classified terms would be the locations and operations of our intelligence operatives around the globe, or our missile silo locations.       

A Bigger Problem than Hillary: Killing Hillary would not cause this problem to go away.  The problem is with the Clinton Foundation as I mentioned, which you should just imagine as a massive spider web of connections and money laundering, implicating hundreds of high-level people. Though I do not have a high opinion of Hillary, she is just a piece -albeit a big piece of this massive shitstorm. Legal is asking preliminary questions about whether or not she has been coached (she has) and setting up the general line of questioning. I am a high level analyst though, so my job is only to look at her records.        

The Department of Justice is most likely looking to save itself. Find everyone involved in the Clinton Foundation, from its donors to its Board of Directors, and imagine they are all implicated.      

The ENTIRE Government is involved. My opinion is the entire government is guilty of treason, which is why Hillary’s death would not cease the investigation or prevent further scandals. Many, many people are involved. There already is enough to indict. FBI Director Comey has been trying to stall because he does not want to face the Clinton Machine, as well as the rest of Washington D.C.  But this case would explode into a million other cases if fully brought to light, and then we would be one agency competing against the entire government and a hoard of other interests. It is a very tense and uncomfortable position.  What Attorney General Loretta Lynch is saying is she will accept whatever they do and make her determination as she will. Nothing about her responsibilities has changed; she is simply trying to keep her hide intact.       

Foreign Powers Have some of the Documents, Trump has some of the Documents; Russia Will Probably Leak All Info they Have. Foreign powers are in possession of some of the documents we have analyzed, because they were hacked from the Clinton server. Trump has some files as well and likely plans to leak them and use them to his advantage soon. The leaks will have to be made in a non-transparent fashion. If we recommend, we literally hand over documentation implying the entire government is involved in treason at the highest levels and everyone is about to duck and cover, as well as some sensitive details of Special Access Programs which would obliterate national security. I am not sure, but some of my war strategy buddies are estimating a high probability that Russia will leak all of the info they have to the world, since Clinton wants to go to war with them and they have no desire to be in conflict with the U.S. If we do not recommend, it will look like a cover-up and Trump will use the perception to bolster his message. I did work in PsyOps once, and Trumps use of confirmation bias is legendary.       

Bill Clinton Will Likely Die This Year. If Trump Wins, Hillary Goes to Jail. Bill Clinton will likely die this year.  Everything is Corrupt, Even Trump is Dirty. The entire government is corrupt. No one is clean, not even Trump. Trump has donated to the Clinton Foundation in the past, though for fairly innocuous things like building permits and such. He is smart, so his tracks are covered well. But if any prosecutor wants to go very in-depth Trump would be brought on bribery charges. He could easily get out of them, but he would be charged nonetheless. We have our hands tied. My message to you and everyone on this board is do not get distracted by Clintons e-mails. Focus on the Foundation. All of the nightmarish truth is there. The e-mails will pale in comparison. I do not know of Trumps record, but from the case he definitely knew to limit his exposure and make it only look like a donation.       

A Multitude of Scandals.  Saudi Arabia visits and donates to the Clinton Foundation. Russian Uranium fiasco. Hillary and the Israel lobby, the Council on Foreign Relations. AIPAC. The list is endless.      

Three Choices Could Crash Eveerything. I will put it to you this way: You have three choices,
 A) turn over all of the information to the Department of Justice, make public a recommendation, the truth comes out, the entire world realizes how much the U.S. is meddling in foreign affairs and we go to war, the civilian population realizes how much foreign money influences our government, and a civil war begins.

B) You cherry-pick the data to implicate the people already in the eye of public opinion, so the chips fall on the heads of a select few and the whole system does not crash.  

 C) You do nothing and watch the unstable political climate to gauge how you will respond.  I am confident if Trump wins Hillary will be going to jail.      

The Problem is the Entire Government.  FBI Director Comey will likely resign in any case. FBI is being very quiet for a reason; most of us want to keep our jobs. Snowden has nothing to do with any of this.  Obama and Hillary do hate each other. Hillary hates black people and Obama dislikes recklessness. The problem is with the entire government. Hillary is just one component of that government.       

Hillary Sold Safe Access Programs to Overseas Donors. All I can tell you about the Safe Access Programs is Hillary had them, and she did not have proper authority to have any of them. They were leaked to her by someone, and she did sell them to overseas donors. Possessing them alone makes her guilty of treason. Obama is loosely tied to the Clinton Foundation, but much more tied in with the same people who donate to the Clinton Foundation. Russian borders, Ukraine, everywhere NATO is, the South China Sea, the Philippines, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Africa. George Soros is at the heart of all of this. If it comes down to it, I would fight. But most of us are of the opinion that Hillary will not be president, and having Trump in office makes our job that much easier. But right now we have to carefully wade through the mud.  As I stated before, Bill Clinton likely wanted Loretta Lynch to focus on the e-mail server and shy away from prosecuting the foundation. We will go to war with Russia and possibly China if Hillary wins the election. Needless to say if anyone has any doubts about the validity of the above info it stands to reason that the originator of this info has to conceal his identity as anyone present at the FBI hearings was sworn to secrecy and leaking any info would at least cost him his job and most likely some jail time to boot and at the worst scenario someone probably would put a contract out on him. 

Most of us know, at least the ones who have paid any attention to politics know that in the past anyone who in some way or another has crossed the Clinton’s  has met an unexplainable early demise and I believe Vince Foster was no exception.           

Some other content in this article appears to re-enforce its validity as whoever penned it, did not make out Trump as just an innocent bystander as even he used bribes whenever he thought it to be necessary to get approval for one of his many projects. Even so bribes should never be the road one has to embarked on, but in retrospect considering everything else whatever he has done pales in comparison with what the Clinton foundation is guilty of along with many other entities within our government.         

 Many of the younger generation leaning towards socialism, liberalism or maybe prefer to be called progressives as it doesn’t sound as harsh as being called a socialist may refute or maybe skeptical of the validity of the above article, but should keep the following in mind. The kind of socialism as it is being practiced and being preached now is a far cry from what it was during the days of Kennedy. As over time socialism has become quite radical and rather rabid as well with no holds barred and just about anything will go as long as it achieves the desired goal. If Kennedy, who was a liberal, would show up today, democrats undoubtedly would make every attempt to run him out of town accusing him to be a conservative.         

After considering and digesting the article you just have read you may want to give some serious thought who you are going to vote for, as I believe a government which is less than honest is not in the best interest of the public and in the long run is doomed to fail, like many others before have.                          

Once again the addition to he above article is just my personal take on this situation which may not be easy to resolve in a peaceful and quiet manner. I just hope that there are still enough wise and honest people left within the current regime who are willing to step up to the plate and somehow settle this issue without doing permanent damage to this once Great Nation.                   
 
This is my take ~ Saintgermaine 

From Captain Bertrand, Ret.

Friends and Associates: 

The information provided below by an FBI insider using the name “Saintgermaine” provides us with an inside look at what we can expect from a Hillary presidency. (There will be assassinations coming if Trump exposes this further, but the source says, there will be a proper time as both Trump and Putin are holding the cards).

There has been an elaborate conspiracy between this rogue government, the GOP, the DNC and several congressmen that need Hillary Clinton in office. The situation is so grave for all Americans, I urge YOU to read the report TWICE and understand how the puzzle is coming together and how certain countries are setting us up for WWIII with Russia.

Trump is NOT ignorant of what is happening and understands the consequences…….

He has worked both sides and made tons of money, but his conscience is with the America people and can stop WWIII.

The effort by mainstream media and elements within the intelligence community are (IMO) rogue communist agents.

The take-down of America has been underway and the truth is surfacing at a rapid rate. No wonder why THEY want to disarm Americans. Read below and discover why….

Note: There will be every attempt to call the report a hoax and (of course) the socialist fact checkers will comply, as they have for 9/11…..where it all began.  

Thank you Larry Jordan for your ability to find this stuff…..and if Bill Clinton in-fact dies this year from what many believe to be a syphilis related condition mimicking Parkinson’s, the rest of the insider’s report will be validated.  

“This inside info comes from someone claiming to be a high level FBI analyst whose job was to look at the records, with his notes added. The smoking gun is about to arrive and there are a lot of people involved.  To save everyone time, what follows here are the choice bits.  Looks like Trump and Putin hold some of the cards.  This could be the most interesting election ever.”          

From The Desk of  Capt. Dave Bertrand (Ret.)  Int’l Freight Captain with military and law enforcement background. Director of the Intelligence Support Agency Inc (I.S.A.) during the early 80′s, international aircraft repossession and government contractor. Following 9/11…trained DHS (counter-terrorism instructor), Border Security Specialist. Media Relations Director for MCDC, and Political Activist. 

After 9/11, it became apparent that American freedoms and liberties were under attack and those responsible are still dictating policies while undermining our constitution. My mission is to slice through the propaganda  and share important news among our network of patriots, military, law enforcement and selected news media sources. We are the pulse of America and we can win the battle against tyranny.

Opinions and discussion of today’s hard hitting topics. If you wish to be removed….reply within, or please forward. Email news will still be around after the U.N. censors news websites after October 1st.

 From Jimmy W.

Good read folks – take it for what it’s worth. Confirms what some of us already know to a certain level. My intel sources know intimate details regarding the Clinton Foundation, of which I recently inferred in a “letter to the editor” response.

E-mails are one thing – using them in a covert manner to cover the Foundation is another. The “insider” below is correct…the real smoking gun and high treason IS the Foundation.   

Both Bill and Hillary deserve the firing squad for selling secrets to enemy nations. Bill actually gave away secrets to China.

And some wonder why so-called Congressional Republicans have been against Trump. Their ass could very well be on the line in the election. The whole house needs to implode on all of them.  

From Craig Maus:

Sharing w/ALL bcc herein gentlemen w/permission to forward:

  We Confederates have described Washington as the BABYLON on the POTOMAC.

 We believe it to be a most FITTING description given the LEVEL of CORRUPTION that now presides over this country.

Long ago we told you that America was being sold out lock, stock and proverbial barrel.

Few then probably believed us & equally, probably dismissed our message as being too far-fetched to be believable…… but look at what the years hence have wrought?

We have a CRIMINAL running for the ‘Presidency’ in Hillary Rodham Clinton whose resume reads like that of a Tom Clancy novel….almost too unbelievable to the point that many are dismissing it out of hand because they can’t believe it is ALL TRUE!

Mr. Trump, likewise, has told you what we have said long ago- “That it is a Rigged System that has sold this country out!”

No matter what you may think of Mr. Trump, he has had the courage to tell it like it IS and coming from a man who has admitted that he was once part of the ‘Inner Circle’ knowing “full well how the GAME is played.”

The courage required to ‘Jump’ from the ‘Inner Circle’ into that of the Peoples Circle is BELIEVABLE given the FACT he has much to lose and little to gain given his position and that of his companies knowing full well that he is NOW A TARGET of the ELITES.

As noted, what YOU do come November 8^th (election day) will CERTAINLY decide YOUR fate and that of this Country.

I believe a Trump win will throw a ‘material’ monkey wrench into the Labyrinth of Deceit that has descended upon us ALL thanks to Washington’s SELL-OUT of this country which We Confederates have been detailing along with the REVISED HISTORY that we have dared to Compare and Contrast with the Republic’s original HISTORY for decades.

What is at stake, CLEARLY, is YOUR children’s futures and that of YOUR grandchildren’s futures.

The Country has been deliberately divided for purposes of Political Alteration whose roots were planted long ago resulting from a Policy of RECONSTRUCTION whose PURPOSE was the creation of…..

The BABYLON on the POTOMAC! 

 Deo Vindice,

Craig Maus,

President, The Confederate Society of America

www.deovindice.org

BY the Eternal, but We Confederates told YOU SO!

                Criminal Profile of Hillary Clinton:

  Is Hillary Clinton a Psychopathic Serial Criminal?

                                                                                                                Sunday, August 28, 2016 

http://beforeitsnews.com/crime-all-stars/2016/08/criminal-profile-of-hillary-clinton-is-she-a-psychopathic-serial-criminal-2457143.html

By Jim Kouri  /  ConservativeBase.com

Hillary Clinton displayed certain characteristics as First Lady that one law enforcement officer labelled a “Jekyll and Hyde” personality that often frightened the White House staff. During interviews, a former Secret Service officer has claimed on news shows and in newspaper stories in the midst of the 2016 election cycle for President of the United States that her behavior fit the profile of a psychopath as described by the FBI’s Behavioral Analysis Division.

According to former Secret Service Agent Gary Byrne’s book, Crisis of Character: A White House Secret Service Officer Discloses His Firsthand Experience with Hillary, Bill, and How They Operate, Mrs. Clinton displayed behavior that some believe mirrors the behavior of psychopaths as described by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in their behavioral analysis profiles.

Psychopathy is a personality disorder manifested in people who use a mixture of charm, manipulation, intimidation, and occasionally violence to control others in order to satisfy their own selfish needs. Although the concept of psychopathy has been known for centuries, the FBI leads the world in the research effort to develop a series of assessment tools, to evaluate the personality traits and behaviors attributable to psychopaths.

                                                                                                
                                                                                           Hillary Clinton wiped her server clean

Mrs. Clinton attempted to laugh her way out, explain her way out and then pretend ignorance when it came to her personal Internet server.

Interpersonal traits include glibness, superficial charm, a grandiose sense of self-worth, pathological lying, and the manipulation of others. The affective traits include a lack of remorse and/or guilt, shallow affect, a lack of empathy, and failure to accept responsibility. The lifestyle behaviors include stimulation-seeking behavior, impulsivity, irresponsibility, parasitic orientation, and a lack of realistic goals.

Research has demonstrated that in those criminals who are psychopathic, scores vary, ranging from a high degree of psychopathy to some measure of psychopathy. However, not all violent offenders are psychopaths and not all psychopaths are violent offenders.

If violent offenders are psychopathic, they are able to assault, rape, and murder without concern for legal, moral, or social consequences. This allows them to do what they want, whenever they want. Ironically, these same traits exist in men and women who are drawn to high-profile and powerful positions in society including political officeholders. “Is it any wonder that a sitting President of the United States or the governor of a state — namely Bill Clinton — would be involved in risky sexual behavior, sex crimes or even an alleged rape?

The relationship between psychopathy and serial killers is particularly interesting. All psychopaths do not become serial murderers. Rather, serial murderers may possess some or many of the traits consistent with psychopathy. Psychopaths who commit serial murder do not value human life and are extremely callous in their interactions with their victims. This is particularly evident in sexually motivated serial killers who repeatedly target, stalk, assault, and kill without a sense of remorse. However, psychopathy alone does not explain the motivations of a serial killer.

What doesn’t go unnoticed is the fact that some of the character traits exhibited by serial killers or other criminals (rapists, spousal-abusers, con artists) may be observed in many within the political arena. While not exhibiting physical violence, many political leaders display varying degrees of anger, feigned outrage and other behaviors. They also lack what most consider a “shame” mechanism. Quite simply, most serial killers and many professional politicians must mimic what they believe, are appropriate responses to situations they face such as sadness, empathy, sympathy, and other human responses to outside stimuli.

Understanding psychopathy becomes particularly critical to law enforcement during a serial murder investigation and upon the arrest of a psychopathic serial killer. The crime scene behavior of psychopaths is likely to be distinct from other offenders. This distinct behavior can assist law enforcement in linking serial cases.

Psychopaths are not sensitive to altruistic interview themes, such as sympathy for their victims or remorse/guilt over their crimes. They do possess certain personality traits that can be exploited, particularly their inherent narcissism, selfishness, and vanity. Specific themes in past successful interviews of psychopathic serial killers focused on praising their intelligence, cleverness, and skill in evading capture.

   Hillary Clinton has been accused of being honesty-impaired. 

Does Hillary Clinton know the difference between the truth and lie, or does Hillary Clinton  believe a lie becomes the truth if enough people accept a lie as the truth or are not that interested in finding out  if it is the truth or a lie

Experts recognize that more research is needed concerning the links between serial murder and psychopathy, in order to understand the frequency and degree of psychopathy among serial murderers. This may assist law enforcement in understanding and identifying serial murderers.__Over the past twenty years, law enforcement and experts from a number of varying disciplines have attempted to identify specific motivations for serial murderers and to apply those motivations to different typologies developed for classifying serial murderers. These range from simple, definitive models to complex, multiple-category typologies that are laden with inclusion requirements. Most typologies are too cumbersome to be utilized by law enforcement during an active serial murder investigation, and they may not be helpful in identifying an offender.

As most homicides are committed by someone known to the victim, police focus on the relationships closest to the victim. This is a successful strategy for most murder investigations. The majority of serial murderers, however, are not acquainted with or involved in a consensual relationship with their victims.

For the most part, serial murder involves strangers with no visible relationship between the offender and the victim. This distinguishes a serial murder investigation as a more nebulous undertaking than that of other crimes. Since the investigations generally lack an obvious connection between the offender and the victim, investigators instead attempt to discern the motivations behind the murders, as a way to narrow their investigative focus.

Serial murder crime scenes can have bizarre features that may cloud the identification of a motive. The behavior of a serial murderer at crime scenes may evolve throughout the series of crimes and manifest different interactions between an offender and a victim. It is also extremely difficult to identify a single motivation when there is more than one offender involved in the series.

Identifying a homicide series is easier in rapidly-developing, high profile cases involving low risk victims. These cases are reported to law enforcement upon discovery of the crimes and draw immediate media attention.

In contrast, identifying a series involving high risk victims in multiple jurisdictions is much more difficult. This is primarily due to the high risk lifestyle and transitory nature of the victims. Additionally, the lack of communication between law enforcement agencies and differing records management systems impede the linkage of cases to a common offender.

While many political leaders will deny the assessment regarding their similarities with serial killers and other career criminals, it is part of a psychopathic profile that may be used in assessing the behaviors of many officials and lawmakers at all levels of government.

https://conservativebase.com/criminal-profile-of-hillary-clinton-is-she-a-psychopathic-serial-criminal/

                  Election Update: Clinton’s Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump’s

                                                                 By Nate Silver

                                              Filed under 2016 Election AUG 1, 2016 
 

 Hillary Clinton at a rally at Fort Hayes 
  Metropolitan Education Center in               
  Columbus, Ohio, on Sunday.

ANDREW HARNIK / AP

UPDATE (Aug. 1, 6:11 p.m.): Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead over Donald Trump has continued to grow as more polls have come in, according to our models. Check our forecasts for the latest numbers.

Initial polls conducted after the Democratic National Convention suggest that Hillary Clinton has received a convention bounce. In fact, it appears likely that Clinton’s bounce will exceed Donald Trump’s, which measured at 3 to 4 percentage points. Thus, Clinton will potentially exit the conventions in a stronger position than she entered them, perhaps also making up for some of the ground she lost to Trump earlier in July. This is good news for Clinton, but we’ll need to wait a few weeks to see if she can sustain her bounce before we can conclude that the race has been fundamentally changed.

Before we continue, a quick note or two about terminology. When we refer to a candidate’s “bounce,” we mean the net gain in her standing in the polls, including changes to her opponent’s vote share. For example, if the previous XYZ News poll had it Clinton 42 percent, Trump 40 percent, and their new poll has it Clinton 44, Trump 39, we’d call that a 3-point bounce for Clinton, since Clinton gained 2 percentage points and Trump lost 1 point.¹

Also, when evaluating the gains a candidate has made, it’s important to note when the previous poll was conducted. Based on our models, Clinton led by 6 to 7 percentage points throughout most of June, but her lead dissipated to around 3 percentage points by mid- to late July, just before the conventions. Then, after the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Trump pulled into an approximate tie with Clinton. It’s those post-RNC polls that make for the best comparison when describing Clinton’s bounce.

So far, however, the post-convention polls have been strong enough for Clinton that there isn’t a lot of need to worry about semantics. They suggest that she possibly holds a lead over Trump in the mid- to high single digits, instead of being tied with him. Here are the fully post-convention polls we’ve seen so far:

• A CBS News poll has Clinton ahead by 5 percentage points, in the version of the poll that includes third-party candidates (which is the version FiveThirtyEight uses). Trump led Clinton by 1 point in a CBS News poll conducted just after the RNC, so that would count as a 6-point bounce for Clinton.
• A Morning Consult poll also showed Clinton up by 5 percentage points, representing a 9-point swing toward her from a poll they conducted last week after the RNC.
• A RABA Research national poll, conducted on Friday after the convention, has Clinton with a 15-point lead. RABA Research’s national poll has been something of a pro-Clinton outlier. Still, the trend in the poll is favorable for Clinton. She’d led Trump by 5 percentage points in RABA Research’s poll just after the RNC, meaning that she got a 10-point bounce.
• Finally, a Public Policy Polling survey has Clinton up by 5 percentage points. Because PPP did not conduct a post-RNC poll, we can’t directly measure Clinton’s bounce. But their previous national poll, in late June, showed Clinton up by 4 percentage points. Therefore, their data tends to confirm our notion that the conventions may have reset the race to approximately where it was in June, which was a strong month of polling for Clinton.

There are also a couple of national tracking polls that contain some post-convention data, and they aren’t as strong for Clinton so far. The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll, which has generally shown favorable results for Trump, still shows Trump ahead by 4 percentage points, although Clinton has recovered slightly from a 7-point deficit a few days ago. Note, however, that the USC poll uses a week-long field period, so only about half of its interviews came after the DNC.²

Meanwhile, the Ipsos/Reuters tracking poll last released data on Friday, covering interviews from Monday through Friday — so most of the poll was conducted during the DNC rather than after it. The short version is that their head-to-head poll (without third-party candidates) shows a bounce back to Clinton, while their version with third-party candidates (the version FiveThirtyEight uses) does not. But Ipsos’s data is a bit of a mess right now because they changed their methodology to remove “neither” as an option in their head-to-head poll. Although the wording on the third-party poll was not changed, it was indirectly impacted by the shift.³ We’re continuing to include the poll in our model, but it’s probably not worth a lot of mental energy to unpack the various editions of it.

Speaking of our models, they’ve begun to show a rebound for Clinton, although it will take more data before any convention bounce is fully priced into them. Clinton’s clearest gains are in our now-cast, which estimates what would happen in an election held today. She’s now a 64 percent favorite in the now-cast, up from having a 45 percent chance when Trump briefly surpassed her in the now-cast last week.

Our forecasts for Nov. 8 haven’t changed as much yet. Clinton is a 62 percent favorite according to our polls-plus forecast, which adjusts the polls for potential convention bounces. That should be a familiar figure, since Clinton has been between 60 and 63 percent in the polls-plus forecast every day since July 17. Finally, our polls-only forecast is the most stubborn of the bunch, showing Clinton as only a 53 percent favorite. Let me try to walk you through the “thinking” of each model:

Polls-only: I tell you what, this thing has been trending to Trump for weeks. The guy was down 7 percentage points in June, and now he’s just about tied it up. What’s that? You’re telling me that some of that was a convention bounce? Sorry, bud — you didn’t program any assumptions about a convention bounce into me. So I wouldn’t know anything about that. The Trump train was rolling down the tracks. You expect me to turn around on a dime based on a few good polls for Clinton? If she’s really gained that much, I’m gonna have to see more proof. I know you think I’m as stubborn as an old Cray-2, but one of these days, I’ll save your behind from getting too far out in front of itself.

Now-cast: I’m so excited about these polls! Last week I thought TRUMP WAS WINNING! Now I think CLINTON’S WINNING! Maybe Clinton’s winning by A LOT! But even for me, four polls isn’t that much data. A few more good polls for Clinton and I’m going to get REALLY EXCITED!

Polls-plus: I’m not sure what you’re all so worked up about. That convention bounce for Mr. Trump? I predicted it ahead of time. I’ve been the very picture of composure, really, barely moving at all over the past two weeks. I must say, though, that I disagree with my friend, Mr. Polls-only. According to my calculations, Mr. Trump’s momentum stopped a couple of weeks ago. I don’t think he should get a lot of credit for that middling convention bounce of his. So I’m happy enough to believe that the next shift in the race will be toward Mrs. Clinton. But be careful, friend. Mrs. Clinton may be in the midst of a convention bounce of her own. Let’s wait for a couple of weeks for things to settle in.

It's About 100 Days Till Election Day

Personally, I think polls-plus makes the most persuasive case for itself and is telling the story that best fits the evidence we have in hand. We know that the polls can be pretty wild around the party conventions. We also know that, by a few weeks after the conventions, they do a very good job of picking the eventual winner:

But we don’t have a lot of evidence about what happens when the parties hold back-to-back conventions, because it’s a relatively new development. Polls just after the 2008 conventions significantly inflated the standing of John McCain and Sarah Palin, who held their convention last. And post-convention polls in 2012 also mildly exaggerated the standing of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, when Democrats held their convention second. While our now-cast may show a relatively sudden shift toward Clinton, our other models will be more cautious, moving a couple of percentage points at a time toward Clinton if she continues to poll well over the next few weeks.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.   @natesilver538