WA election: Mark McGowan discusses life outside politics and being an outsider

LAURA GARTRY SAT MAR 04 

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-04/wa-labor-leader-mark-mcgowan-discusses-life-outside-politics/8315748?pfmredir=sm

Mark McGowan (pictured with parents Dennis and Mary in 1995) had humble beginnings.

Mark McGowan had a near-death experience with a squash racket in his teens, drinks German wheat beers, and if the bookies are right is set to become first WA premier in 30 years not to have attended the University of Western Australia.

But what else do we know about the Labor leader and father of three?

The University of Queensland graduate ended up in Perth by chance almost 30 years ago and admits it is "unusual" for someone from outside of WA to progress into a leadership position in the state Labor party

Mark McGowan became a Navy lawyer after his hopes of becoming an Air Force pilot were dashed by eyesight problems.

SUPPLIED: WA LABOR

After finishing a law degree in Brisbane, Mr McGowan hoped to join the Air Force to become a pilot, but was ruled ineligible because of his eyesight.

"The truth is I wouldn't have got in anyway because I am not very good at maths, so I wouldn't have lasted very long," he laughed.

He came second in the selection for a navy legal officer position, but the person ahead of him dropped out and he accepted a position in Perth.

Not a local, but also not an outsider

Mark McGowan and his wife Sarah heading to a Navy ball in the 1990s.

Mr McGowan said not coming from WA had its disadvantages in political life.

"When you didn't go to UWA, you didn't grow up in the western suburbs and …
you didn't have that background, you are coming from behind," he said

"I am not from that group, but I do not feel like I am an outsider.

"It takes a long time to break through that, but it is unusual to have come from somewhere else and get to the position I am in."

'I was quite a straight kid'

Mr McGowan grew up in regional New South Wales and attended high school in Coffs Harbour with his younger brother.

"I went to the opposite of an exclusive school, put it that way," Mr McGowan said.

"I was quite a straight kid … I tried hard at school because I wanted to impress my parents."

 Mark McGowan at 12 years of age.

His father Dennis owned a squash centre and his mother Mary was a primary school teacher.

Mr McGowan described his parents, who still live in Coffs Harbour, as "very ordinary".

"… they are not wealthy, they do not have any airs and graces, they are currently coming over to visit in a caravan."

"I don't go back there very often, I get back maybe once a year to visit."

At age 15, he suffered a skull fracture playing in the state junior squash titles.

"… A guy let go of his racket and it hit me in the side of the head, nearly killed me … it knocked me out," he said.

"I was concussed but I eventually got up and kept playing, I shouldn't have. I was having dizzy spells … I wasn't able to play sport for three months."

Political beginnings

Inspired by former Labor prime minister Bob Hawke's ability to "transcend class" Mr McGowan was elected to WA's Parliament in 1996.

Mr McGowan conceded his skin was a lot thicker now than it was back then.

"I was bit too ambitious too early on … 
and I think people saw it. You have to bide your time in political life, it is marathon not a sprint," he said.

"If you get advancement too early well sometimes you can be promoted beyond your ability and you burn out."

 Mr McGowan and his wife Sarah celebrate his election to WA's Parliament in 1996.

Since his election, Mr McGowan has held many senior portfolios in both government and opposition, and is the longest-serving MP to run for premier in 40 years.

He described his wife Sarah as a constant source of support and advice during his political career

"She is very good adviser … she can see through all the crap. Sometimes you are in a bubble," he said.

Life outside of politics

Mr McGowan said he did not have enough time for hobbies so he used his free time to play with his kids or walk the dog.

During his interview with the ABC, his media adviser prompted him to list a hobby.

"Camping, you like camping," she said.

"I like camping there you go, I haven't been for a while but if I get the chance I like to go," Mr McGowan responded.

Seemingly a workaholic, he spends up to two hours on the road every day.

Mr McGowan's children have played a key role in the 2017 election campaign.

ABC NEWS: JACOB KAGI

"You don't spend as much time with your children as you should. But hopefully the upside of it is,
 when I do spend time with them it is quality time and they are proud of their dad," he said.

Mr McGowan's three young children have played a key role shaping his profile during the campaign.

When asked about any political mistakes or regrets, Mr McGowan declined to identify any.

"There are lots of things I regret, but I don't really want to raise them because I don't want my opponents to use them against me," he said.

"…I think it might draw attention to something that bothers me and I don't want that … it will probably appear in Liberal Party ads,"

"After 20 years, I don't want the last 10 days to be a disaster," he said.

POSTED SAT MAR 04

Key Seats for the Western Australian 2017 State  Election

http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/guide/key-seats/

Liberal / National

West Swan (*)

LIB 0.9%: The electorate of West Swan takes in a disparate array of suburbs on Perth's northern fringe. It includes Herne Hill, the newer suburbs around Henley Brook, Brabham, West Swan, Dayton, Bennett Springs, Malaga and most of Ballajura, before extending north-west to include market gardening areas of the City of Wanneroo and the far northern Perth suburb of Banksia Grove. It was an electorate first contested in 2008 when current Labor MP Rita Saffioti was elected. She defended this marginal seat with a swing against her of only 2.2% in 2013, and on paper faces a challenge in 2017 as the redistribution has given West Swan a notional Liberal margin on the new boundaries. Saffioti should hold this seat for Labor given a personal vote and the expected state swing to Labor, but her Liberal opponent Rod Henderson will no doubt have different views.

Belmont

LIB 1.0%: Belmont lies south of the Swan with most of the physical area of the electorate taken up by Perth Airport, the Kewdale freight terminal and the Welshpool industrial area. Residential suburbs include Rivervale, Kewdale, Belmont, Cloverdale, Redcliffe, Ascot and parts of Burswood, South Guildford and Hazelmere. Belmont had been a Labor seat from its first contest in 1962 until being lost to the Liberal Party in 2013. Former members for the seat include two Labor Party Leaders in Col Jamieson and Eric Ripper. The electorate's demographics had been changing in recent years, and with Ripper's retirement in 2013, Liberal Glenys Godfrey won the seat at her third attempt with an above average 7.6% swing. As in 2013 the Labor candidate is Cassie Rowe.

Forrestfield

LIB 2.2%: Forrestfield covers a string of suburbs east of Perth Airport and the Roe Highway. From north to south the electorate includes High Wycombe, Maida Vale, Forrestfield, Wattle Grove and Kenwick. It was first contested at the 2008 election and won by Labor, its candidate Andrew Waddell narrowly defeating Liberal Nathan Morton. Morton returned to defeat Waddell in 2013 and will re-contest against new Labor candidate Stephen Price in 2017.

Perth

LIB 2.8%: Centred on the Perth central business district, the electorate also includes Kings Park, the Perth CBD, West Perth, Mt Hawthorn, North Perth, Leederville, Highgate, Northbridge and parts of East Perth. Perth had a long history as a Labor held seat, but was won by the Liberal Party's Eleni Evangel in 2013 with a 10.4% swing, twice the state swing. In 2017 she will be opposed by the Labor Party's John Carey.

Collie-Preston (*)

LIB 2.9%: The electorate of Collie-Preston includes three south-west shires, Collie, Dardanup and Donnybrook-Balingup, most of the Shire of Capel and a part of the Shire of Harvey. The largest centre is the coal mining town of Collie, but the electorate also includes Boyanup, Capel, Dardanup, Donnybrook and some outer suburbs to the north of Bunbury. Labor MP Mick Murray won Collie by 34 votes in 2001, the final Labor gain and last seat decided at that election. Murray was easily re-elected for Collie-Wellington in 2005, overcame one-vote one-value boundaries to win Collie-Preston in 2008, but survived by just 56 votes in 2013. The redistribution since has wiped out Murray's margin and he will need to increase his vote in 2017 to win back this now notionally Liberal held seat. His Liberal opponent is Elysia Harverson and the Nationals have nominated Monique Warnock.

Kalgoorlie

NAT 3.2% v LIB: Most of the population of the Kalgoorlie electorate is in the built area of the City of Kalgoorlie-Boulder, but the electorate also takes in the more remote Shires of Laverton, Leonora, Menzies, Coolgardie and Dundas. The district had a long history as a Labor seat, but the changing nature of the mining industry saw it won by the Liberal Party in 2001, the only seat lost by Labor on the election to office of the Gallop government. After two terms held by Liberal Matt Birney, Kalgoorlie was won by Labor turned Independent MP John Bowler in 2008, then by the National Party's Wendy Duncan in 2013. Duncan is retiring at the 2017 election, and the Nationals candidate is Tony Crook, who lost to Bowler in 2008 before winning the Federal seat of O'Connor in 2010, retiring in 2013. The Liberal candidate is Kyran O'Donnell, Labor's candidate Darren Forster.

Swan Hills

LIB 3.7%: The electorate of Swan Hills includes the thinly settled north-east corner of the metropolitan area, with most of the electorate's population concentrated in rapidly growing Ellenbrook, The Vines and Aveley, as well as the Shire of Mundaring suburbs of Mount Helena, Chidlow, Beechina, Wooroloo and parts of Sawyers Valley and Mundaring. Swan Hills was one of the many marginal Labor seats not defended by a sitting MP on the introduction of one-vote one-value boundaries in 2008, playing a part in the victory of current Liberal MP Frank Alban. He was re-elected in 2013 with a 2.4% swing in his favour, less than half the state wide swing against Labor. Alban will be opposed in 2013 by Labor candidate Jessica Shaw.

Morley

LIB 4.7%: The electorate of Morley lies in Perth's inner-northern suburbs and includes the suburbs of Nollamara, Noranda and parts of Dianella and Morley. Re-created as a safe Labor seat ahead of the 2008 election, Labor declined to nominate its Ballajura MP John D'Orazio as candidate and paid a heavy price when he nominated as an Independent and recommended preferences for the Liberal Party. Liberal Ian Britza was elected after the second largest swing in the state, Labor's candidate decisions in Morley and neighbouring Mount Lawley playing an important part in the defeat of the Carpenter government. In 2013 Britza overcame a redistribution that wiped out his majority to win re-election, but he will face a sterner challenge in 2017. His Labor opponent is East Metropolitan MLC Amber-Jade Sanderson.

Balcatta

LIB 7.1%: Balcatta is an inner-northern Perth electorate that includes the suburbs of Balcatta, Joondanna, Stirling, Tuart Hill, Hamersley and parts of Osborne Park. The electorate has been created and abolished several times in the state's political history, but until 2013 it had always been a Labor seat. It was gained by the Liberal Party's Chris Hatton in 2013 after an above average 9.5% swing, helped by the retirement of Labor MP John Kobelke. Balcatta is certain to be a more competitive seat in 2017 and Hatton's Labor opponent is City of Stirling councillor David Michael.

Mount Lawley

LIB 8.9%: The electorate of Mount Lawley covers a strip of inner northern Perth suburbs including Yokine, Coolbinia, Menora, Mt Lawley and parts of Dianella, Inglewood, Morley and East Perth. The seat had previously existed as a safe Liberal seat between 1950 and 1989, but was re-created with a notional Labor margin on the introduction of one-vote one-value electoral boundaries in 2008. For internal reasons Labor declined to nominate Yokine MP Bob Kucera as its candidate, and Liberal Michael Sutherland won Mount Lawley with one of the largest anti-Labor swings at the election. Sutherland added 7.7% to his margin in 2013 and will defend the seat in 2017 against Labor's Simon Millman.

Bicton

LIB 10.0%: Bicton runs along the southern shore of the Swan River and includes the suburbs of Attadale, Bicton, Palmyra, East Fremantle, Melville and parts of Alfred Cove and Myaree. It is a new electorate formed from the western parts of the former seat Alfred Cove, and also includes East Fremantle and Melville from the neighbouring Labor seats of Fremantle and Willagee. The abolition of Alfred Cove created a pre-selection scramble amongst Liberal MPs, and Alfred Cove MP Dean Nalder won the ballot to contest the safer seat of Bateman, while more marginal Bicton will be contested by Bateman MP Matt Taylor. His Labor opponent is City of Melville councillor Lisa O'Malley.

Kalamunda

LIB 10.3%: Kalamunda is centred on the Darling Range suburbs of Kalamunda, Gooseberry Hill, Lesmurdie, Walliston and Carmel. The electorate also includes Darlington, Glen Forrest, Parkerville, Stoneville, Mahogany Creek and parts of Mundaring north of the Helena River. It has always been a Liberal seat, but the margin for sitting Liberal MP and Health Minister Don Day is at the point on the pendulum where a uniform swing would deliver victory to Labor. The Labor candidate is Matthew Hughes.

Joondalup

LIB 10.4%: Joondalup covers a string of outer northern Perth suburbs including of Beldon, Mullaloo, Ocean Reef, Heathridge, Edgewater, Connolly and parts of Currambine and Joondalup. Joondalup was one of the seats retained by Labor on its defeat at the 2008 election, but lost to the Liberal Party in 2013. The recent redistribution has doubled the Liberal margin from 4.5% to an estimated 10.4%, which puts Joondalup at the point of the pendulum where a uniform swing could deliver a change of government. The Liberal MP is Jan Norberger, his Labor opponent Emily Hamilton.

Geraldton

LIB 10.9% v NAT: In the state's mid-north, the electorate of Geraldton covers the urban areas of Geraldton and surrounding rural areas. Geraldton has been contested at every election since the first Western Australian election in 1890, and was Labor held for all but one term between 1917 and 1991. It was lost by Labor at a 1991 by-election and looked to have permanently left the Labor orbit until the 2001 election. One Nation polled 21.0% and the Liberal first preference vote halved, delivering an unexpected victory to Labor's Shane Hill. He was re-elected in 2005 but could not overcome the one-vote one-value electoral boundaries introduced for the 2008 election. Since then Labor has slipped to third place and Geraldton was a Liberal-National contest in 2013. With the revival of Labor's vote, Geraldton may be a three-way contest in 2017. Liberal MP Ian Blayney will be opposed by Labor's Lara Dalton and the National's Agricultural Region MLC Paul Brown.

Southern River

LIB 10.9%: In the south-east suburbs of Perth, the electorate of Southern River includes a mix of newer and older suburbs, taking in parts of Canning Vale, Huntingdale, Southern River and Gosnells. Something of a swing seat at elections over the last two decades, Southern River has been held by Liberal Peter Abetz since gaining it from Labor in 2008. Abetz boosted his margin with a 15.1% swing in 2013, but the redistribution has since reduced the Liberal margin from 17.0% to 10.9%. The large swing in 2013 was in part due to Labor concentrating on defending its own seats. The campaign in Southern River will be more vigorous in 2017 as the seat sits around the point of the pendulum where Labor can achieve government. Abetz's Labor opponent is local schoolteacher and City of Gosnells councillor Terry Healy.

Wanneroo

LIB 11.0%: Covers the outer northern Perth suburbs on the eastern side of Lake Joondalup north of Ocean Reef Road including Carramar, Tapping, Ashby, Sinagra, Wanneroo, Hocking and Pearsall. Wanneroo has been a traditional swing seat and changed hands in 2008 when won by the Liberal Party's Paul Miles. He achieved a swing of 10.2% on re-election in 2013, but is likely to face a sterner challenge in 2017. His Labor opponent is Wanneroo local councillor Sabine Winton.

Burns Beach

LIB 11.3%: The electorate of Burns Beach lies in Perth's outer north and includes the suburbs of Mindarie, Clarkson, Tamala Park, Burns Beach, Kinross, Iluka and parts of Joondalup and Currambine. It replaces the former seat of Ocean Reef, the new boundaries reducing the Liberal margin from 19.0% to an estimated 11.3%. Ocean Reef was created as a marginal Labor seat ahead of the 2008 election but was won by the Liberal Party's Albert Jacob, adding 16% to his margin with a big swing in 2013. With Labor likely to give more attention to northern Perth seats in 2017, Burns Beach will be a key seat despite its 11.3% margin. Albert Jacob will re-contest for the Liberal Party and his Labor opponent is Mark Folkard.

North West Central

NAT 11.5%: Covering a vast swathe of the state's inland and north west, the electorate of North West Central includes the Shires of Ashburton, Exmouth, Carnarvon, Shark Bay, Northampton north of the Murchison River, Upper Gascoyne, Murchison, Yalgoo, Cue, Mount Magnet, Meekatharra, Sandstone, Wiluna and Ngaanyatjarra. In the last three decades the electorates in this region of the state have undergone regular boundary and name changes and have been represented by all three major parties. Current MP Vince Catania was first elected for Labor in 2008, but defected to the National Party in July 2009 and was easily elected as a Nationals candidate in 2013. Labor slipped to third place in 2013 but the seat may revert to a traditional two-party race in 2017. Catania's opponents will be the Liberal Party's Julee Westcott, and Labor's Shane Hill, who was MP from Geraldton 2001-08. The electorate is larger in area than New South Wales and covers 32.3% of Western Australia.

Pilbara

NAT 11.5%: Pilbara is a vast electorate in the north of the state covering the Shire of East Pilbara, the Town of Port Hedland, and the City of Karratha. The main population centres in the electorate are Port Hedland, Newman, Dampier, Karratha, Wickham, Roebourne, Nullagine and Marble Bar. The seat was traditionally held by Labor, but in 2013 National Party Leader Brendon Grylls took the risk of abandoning his seat of Central Wheatbelt to try and win this northern seat. He won after an 18.7% swing, easily the largest swing in the state. Having resigned and now returned as Nationals Leader since the last election, Grylls is currently attracting opposition in his seat from mining interests opposed to his idea to increase legacy mining royalties. He is opposed in 2017 by Labor's Kevin Michel and Liberal Mark Alchin.

Bunbury

LIB 12.2%: The electorate of Bunbury includes the entire City of Bunbury local government area plus Dalyellup in the south from the Shire of Collie. Bunbury developed a reputation as the state's bellwether electorate for three decades. It was won by the party of government at every election from 1974 until won by the Liberal Party's John Castrilli as the Gallop Labor government was re-elected in 2005. Castrilli increased his margin at the 2008 and 2013 elections but will be retiring at the 2017 election. The new Liberal candidate is Ian Morison while the Labor candidate is Don Punch.

Hillarys

LIB 16.0%: Hillarys is a normally safe Liberal seat in Perth's northern suburbs incorporating Kallaroo, Craigie, Hillarys, Padbury and Sorrento. It is of interest in 2017 due to sitting MP Rob Johnson splitting from the Liberal Party and re-contesting as an Independent. He will be opposed by the Liberal Party's Peter Katsambanis, who is contesting Hillarys rather than his current Legislative Council seat.

Roe

NAT 16.7% v LIB: Roe replaces the southern wheatbelt electorate of Wagin, but the seat has been extended east to include Esperance and southern parts of the abolished Liberal seat of Eyre. The major centres of Roe are Narrogin, Wagin, Boddington, Lake Grace, Katanning, Kojonup, Gnowangerup, Ravensthorpe and Esperance. Wagin's National MP Terry Waldron is retiring at the 2017 election, but Eyre's Liberal MP Graham Jacobs will contest Roe. The new National candidate is Peter Rundle. Labor traditionally finishes a distant third in this seat.

Labor

Midland

ALP 0.5%: Based on Guildford and Midland in Perth's east, the electorate also includes the suburbs of Woodbridge, Viveash, Midvale, Stratton, Jane Brook, Swan View, Greenmount, Koongamia, Bellevue, Caversham, Helena Valley, Boya and parts of Hazelmere and Middle Swan. It is normally a safe Labor seat, but sitting MP Michelle Roberts came within 24 votes of defeat at the 2013 election. The Labor margin has been boosted slightly in the redistribution, and Roberts should not be at risk of defeat in 2017 given state polls suggest a significant swing to Labor. That will not stop Liberal candidate Daniel Parasiliti from trying to win Midland at his second attempt.

Albany

ALP 1.0%: The city of Albany lies on King George Sound on the south coast of Western Australia. Most of the voters in the electorate live in the urban areas of Albany, but the electorate includes all the City of Albany Council and the smaller Shire of Jerramungup. One of only four electorates to have been contested at every WA election, Albany has been held by all parties over the years but looked to have left the Labor orbit when lost to the Liberal Party in 1974. It was a surprise when former Olympic runner Peter Watson won Albany for Labor at the 2001 election, the seat recording the state's largest swing to Labor. Proving his victory was no fluke, Watson was re-elected in 2005, overcome the disadvantage of new one-vote one-value boundaries in 2008, and even increased his majority in 2017 as Labor went backward across the state in 2013. The Liberal candidate is Greg Stocks, and as in 2013 the National candidate is Robbie Sutton.

Butler

ALP 1.0%: Butler covers Perth's furthest north beachside suburbs west of Wanneroo Road and north of Hester Avenue and Quinns Road. From north to south it includes Two Rocks, Yanchep, Eglinton, Alkimos, Jindalee, Butler, Quinns Rocks, Merriwa and Ridgewood. The area has represented by Labor's John Quigley, under its former name of Mindarie from 2005 and as Butler since 2013. The seat saw an above average swing of 8.6% in 2013 but Quigley narrowly retained the seat. He should have an easier task of retaining Butler in 2017 given the expected swing to Labor, His Liberal opponent is City of Wanneroo councillor Linda Aitken.

2017 Western Australian Election - Electoral Pendulum -January 03, 2017

Anthony Green’s Blog ABC News-

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2017/01/2017-western-australian-election-electoral-pendulum.html

(UPDATE: My website for the 2017 Western Australian election has been published and can be found at this link.)

The 2017 Western Australian election will be held on 11 March 2017. It will be conducted on changed electoral boundaries from the 2013 election when the Barnett government was re-elected.

My ABC election guide for the election will not be available until the end of January, but below I have set out the electoral pendulum for the 2017 election based on transferring the 2013 election results to match the new boundaries.

On the new boundaries the Labor seats of West Swan and Collie-Preston become notional Liberal seats. Both seats are indicated on the pendulum as having a Labor MP.

Rather than traditional two-party contests, several regional electorates are likely to be Liberal versus National contests. For these electorates a two-party margin is indicated, as well as a notional margin between the Liberal and National candidates in brackets.

Seats marked (+) were seats lost by Labor at the 2013 election.

In Hillarys, Rob Johnson was elected as a Liberal in 2013 but will re-contest as an Independent in 2017.

Using  the new boundaries, the Liberal Party has a notional 32 seats in the 59 seat Legislative Assembly. If the Liberal Party loses three seats then the National Party will hold the balance of power. This would occur with a 2.2% swing to Labor. All opinion polls currently indicate a larger swing to Labor.

For a majority Labor government, Labor needs to gain 10 seats on a uniform swing of 10%. The ten seats includes the two notional Liberal seats with sitting Labor MPs.

A swing of between 2.2% and 10% would most likely deliver the National Party the balance of power, though it would be a significant break with the party's history for the National Party to do other than back the return of a Liberal-led government in those circumstances.

Full details of the WA redistribution can be found at this link.

The table below sets out the overall votes by party at the 2013 election.

The 36 member Legislative Council elected in 2013 consisted of 17 Liberal members, 5 National, 11 Labor, 2 Green and one Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.

The WA Legislative Council is the last remaining malapportioned state chamber with a 3-to-1 weighting in favour of areas outside of metropolitan Perth. With the exception of four remote seats, one-vote one-value electoral boundaries apply in the lower house. In the Legislative Council there are 18 MLCs elected to represent Perth and 18 to represent the rest of the state. This is despite Perth having 75% of the state's population compared to 25% in the rest of the state. As of last September the average enrolment per metropolitan MLC is 66,310 compared to only 22,009 in the rest of the state.

The Legislative Council is split into six regions that each elect six MLCs. There are three regions in Perth and three in the rest of the state, region boundaries defined by law to correspond to land use patterns.

The South West region runs from Mandurah around the south west corner of the state to Albany and has an average enrolment per MLC of 37,490.

The Agricultural Region runs through the wheatbelt from Geraldton to Esperance and has an average enrolment per MLC of 17,141.

The Mining and Pastoral Region covers Kalgoorlie and the vast east and north of the state. It has an average enrolment per MLC of 11,395.

The regional structure of the Legislative Council was introduced in the 1980s as a deal between the Labor and National Parties. It gave both parties a low quota region where it polled well, the Nationals in Agricultural Region and Labor in Mining and Pastoral Region.

Since then Labor's vote has collapsed in the state's mining regions and Labor currently holds only one of the six seats in Mining and Pastoral Region. The Nationals currently hold two of the six seats in both the Agricultural and the Mining and Pastoral Regions. The Nationals also hold three lower house seats in both regions.

After the 2005 WA election, Labor and the Greens combined with a disendorsed Liberal MLC to pass one-vote one-value electoral boundaries for the Legislative Assembly. This was achieved by using the 'lame duck' period of the Legislative Council, the period when the old Council remains in place after the election until new MLCs take their seats after 22 May.

The Greens would not agree to Labor's proposals to also change the Council, other than to end the former 5 and 7 member Regions and replace them with 6 member regions. This change in numbers further strengthened the weighting in favour of the Agricultural and Mining and Pastoral Regions.

With the continuing decline of population in the two remote regions, the weighting in favour of these regions and against the South West and Metropolitan regions will continue to increase. It may be an issue opened for debate after the 2017 election.

The Legislative Council is elected using the group voting ticket system that was abandoned ahead of the 2016 Federal election. Voters will have two choices, to accept a single ticket of preferences as lodged by a party, or to number preferences for every candidate below the line.

As a result the ABC WA Election site will again have upper house election calculators based on the lodged tickets.

Voters who number preferences above the line as at the Senate election will have all preferences beyond '1' ignored and the party's lodged ticket of preferences will be used instead. Voters who use the Federal rules where only 12 preferences are required below the line will be casting an informal vote.

The 10 parties listed below are currently registered to contest the election

• Animal Justice Party
• Australian Christians
• Australian Labor Party
• Daylight Saving Party
• Family First Party
• Julie Matheson for Western Australia
• National Party of Australia
• Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party
• The Greens
• Liberal Party of Australia

As of 3 January the following six parties are awaiting registration.

• Liberal Democratic Party
• Pauline Hanson's One Nation
• Socialist Alliance WA
• Fluoride Free WA Party
• The Flux Party - WA
• Micro Business Party

Only seven parties contested the Legislative Council at the 2013 election, which means the ballot papers in 2017 will be much larger and the preference deals will be more complex. Preference harvesting, now impossible at Senate elections, could play a significant part in who wins the last seat in each region.

Posted by Antony Green on January 03, 2017 at 09:25 AM in Western Australia Elections and Politics | Permalink

Comments

Well with the swings of recent elections being so dramatic I guess Labor could do it. 

Posted by: Paul Gruyters | January 03, 2017 at 10:52 AM

Preferential voting should be abolished.

If I vote for Fred or Freda, and they don't win, I don't want my vote passed to anyone else.

It has been proved that the Preferential Voting system can be abused.

It should be 'first past the post is the winner'.

COMMENT: What you want is optional preferential voting where you only have to give as many preferences as you want. There is a lot more evidence of first past the post voting distorting results than preferential voting. Under preferential voting a vote for a minor party doesn't always end up as a wasted vote as it does under first past the post.

Australia has conducted all its elections under preferential forms of voting for close to a century, so I don't see the country winding back the clock to use first past the post.

Posted by: Alan Edge | January 03, 2017 at 06:18 PM

preferential voting means that a majority have voted for a candidate. "so called" first past the post (a) gets 30% (b) 20 (c) 20 (d) 20 (e) 10 a gets elected with 30% and 70% not liking them. .

COMMENT: In the example you give there, the order of election would play a big part in who gets elected. Preferential voting works best when it is clear who finishes first and second on first preferences. What preferential voting does is allow voters to express their real first preference for third party candidates without the first past the post risk of harming the chances of victory for a higher polling candidate.

Posted by: trev | January 03, 2017 at 06:39 PM

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-16/nigel-hallett-quits-wa-liberal-party/7516578

The SFF has 2 members in WA, Anthony. Not one. :)

Posted by: Steve Bowler | January 03, 2017 at 09:00 PM

What happens if one uses the swing that occurred in the last Federal election, rather than 2013 figures???

COMMENT: I don't know. I'm setting out margins to analyse the 2017 state election based on the results of the 2013 state election, as required to publish a website and to set up a computer system for election night analysis. If I get chance I might look at the Federal results but it is of no use to me on election night.

Posted by: Anita Lorenz | January 03, 2017 at 09:59 PM

Antony, I notice the WAEC has drawn boundaries such that there are a significant number of seats that are between have a LIB/ALP 2PP margin of between 10-12% (when compared to the number of seats held between say 5 and 10% margins by the Liberals). Most of those seats are the outer metro Perth seats that normally determine who holds government.

2 Questions

Is this just an accident of geography or is there a SA-esque requirement for electoral fairness the WAEC has had to abide by?

Is this sort of margin clustering common in partisan balances of other State Parliaments?

On the face of it, it would seem like a significant disadvantage for the ALP that they would need to get over 52% 2PP in order to win majority government assuming uniform swings.

COMMENT: The WA boundaries are drawn without reference to voting patterns. The prime criteria is equal enrolment. The redistribution has decreased the number of seats with margins above 15% and increased the number between 10% and 15%. I don't expect the swing to be uniform. Labor ran a defensive campaign in 2013, resulting in many Liberal marginal seats seing enormous swings against Labor. I'd expect the mismatch in the statewide 2PP versus the swing required to win to even out in 2017.

Posted by: Max Roberts | January 04, 2017 at 01:43 AM

Preferential voting is one of the few things we've somehow managed to get RIGHT in this country.

Reasonable people can argue about full preferential or optional preferential.
I'm in the full preferential camp, myself.

But both are superior to the ridiculous FPP which reduces voters to making "tactical" voting decisions and pressures parties to amalgamate into a 2 horse race. In a FPP system, the Greens and Labor would be forced to merge.

Posted by: paulus | January 04, 2017 at 02:27 AM

When are you going to do the recently South Australia Redistribution?

COMMENT: The Electoral Boundaries Commission published its estimated margins for all seats as it is required to do by the fairness provision. I'll do some of my own estimates later this year.

Posted by: Anthony Simpson | January 04, 2017 at 08:48 PM

In response to Alan Edge, I'd suggest that FPTP is way more subject to abuse than preferential (or IRV) systems - it strongly encourages tactical voting where people have to guess the more likely winners and choose from them, rather than simply expressing an order of preference.

Antony - would there be better systems in your opinion out there than the current IRV system, such as the Condorcet system?

COMMENT: Preferential voting is fine unless you have a multi-party system in which case proportional representation is preferable. Condorcet counting is not used for any significant elections other than committe voting.

Posted by: electricrabbit | January 05, 2017 at 04:26 PM

I've seen recent polling that suggests that Brendon Grylls is in real trouble in the seat of Pilbara, suggesting that he would finish behind both the Libs and the ALP (and just ahead of ON) in the seat. Would this sort of result also be likely to be in effect in the next-door seat of North West Central, and even possibly in Kalgoorlie?

If so, it would severely damage the Nationals position if they were returned to their rump of seats in the Agricultural Region (and likely Warren-Blackwood).

I'd imagine there would be a certain amount of schadenfreude in ALP ranks if Vince Catania was tipped out of North West Central due to Nationals policy.

COMMENT: The poll you refer to was commissioned by the WA Chamber of Minerals and Energy, who are opposed to Grylls' proposal to increase mining royalties, was conducted by the Labor Party's pollster Utting Research, and was based on a sample of just 300. Privately commissioned opinion polling of this type never sees the light of day without a purpose.

Posted by: electricrabbit | January 05, 2017 at 06:03 PM

11 March 2017 State General Election Boundaries
http://www.boundaries.wa.gov.au/electoral-boundaries/11-march-2017-state-general-election-boundaries